Win/Loss Statistics of our Spread Indicator

AU

Hit 10 pips profit 75% of the time within 2 hours… often leading to hundreds of pips…

We have an indicator in development for the use of bull spreads in Nadex, for forex trades, and also for binary options Nadex trades. Below are the testing and results. First, I will post pictures of the indicator in action in the live market. The arrows did not repaint in any form. What you see is how they came in the live market.

A member of our group supplied all the information here. I am just recompiling it for you in an easy to read format. This is not my work but rather the awesome and inspiring work of our member, Nick. One of the great things about Joaquin Trading is the fact that we all work together for the good of the group as a whole! We all share ideas with each other and it is fantastic.

So below are a few charts of the indicator in action. The red arrows signify buying opportunities and the red arrows signify selling opportunities. We will try to capture 20 pips of profit on half of the position and then move our stop loss to break even to let the other half ride for larger moves.

To see a larger picture of a chart, just click it. To see the actual excel profit/loss statistics, scroll to the bottom and to see it in google sheets, just click on the link at the bottom.

If this is something you are interested in using for your own trading, just CLICK HERE!

All of these signals were using a setting on the indicator that looks at the trends in the market from 5 minute, 15 minute, 30 minute,and 1 hour time frames.

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What I will post below are the actual emails from Nick and I will also include a spreadsheet he made available with statistics detailed from each day of testing. Here come the emails…

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Hi Ryan,

I wanted to let you know how I am testing your Bull Spread Indicator, and I want to get your opinion to determine if my strategy is any good or not.

I know you haven’t really come up with any rules for this indicator, so I came up with some rules of my own for testing.

I am testing making money 3 different ways:

1) to get 10 pips profit
2) to get 20 pips profit
3) to make an ATM Binary Options trade

The rules I am using are:

1) Take 2 bull spread contracts when the trend arrow appears
2) Take a BO ATM contract at the same time (1 hour options >> if the signal comes out between 9:00 and 9:45, take 10:00 Expire/after 9:45 take 11:00 exp)
3) Close out one of the bull spread contracts when it makes 10 pips
4) Close out the second bull spread contract when it reaches 20 pips
5) Close out either bull spread contract when it either reaches -20 pips or hits the 2 hour mark

One thing I am also doing different than you, is that I might take an additional set of trades if I get a new set of arrows in the same direction (if I have already closed out a previous set of trades).  For example, I get a trend arrow at 10:00 AM and it makes me 10 pips at 10:10 and 20 pips at 10:25.  At 10:40, I get a new trend arrow in the same direction, so I start the process all over again. (This is outside of what you would do, so it’s probably more risky.)

SO I back tested this strategy for the week of April 20-24.  It did excellent on the historical test.

These are the results of that test:

10 pip trades – 117 wins/7 losses 94%  (1120.00 profit)
20 pip trades – 91 wins/33 losses 73%  (1712.00 profit)
BO trades – 104 wins/20 losses 84%  (4200.00 profit)

Total winning $ (not taking into account spreads and commissions) = 7032.00

This week I started my charts running on Sunday have not refreshed or reloaded my charts at all.  Here are my results after 4 days this week:

10 pip trades – 113 wins/34 losses 77%  (694.00 profit)
20 pip trades – 89 wins/59 losses 60%  (1164.00 profit)
BO trades – 85 wins/64 losses 57%  (1050.00 profit)

Total winning $ (not taking into account spreads and commissions) = 2908.00

Obviously, taking spreads and commissions into account, the total winning $ would probably drop by 10-20%.

The first week of testing was almost “too good to be true”. I feel that the results from this week are more realistic.

Also, please be aware that the “losses” are not all unprofitable.  If a bull spread hit the 2 hour mark and did not make 10 pips (but made 7), I would classify that trade as a loss, even though it actually made a little money.

As you always ask, is this a winning system?  From what I have looked at so far, the answer is YES.  

One thing I have noticed, is that the indicator spits out almost all of the trades between 12AM and 12PM.  The arrows that pop up between 12PM and 12AM usually don’t work as well (though I did not exclude them from my test).  The arrows also work the best when there is movement in the market.  The market didn’t move much on Monday May 4, so the profits were very small that day.

In my testing (9 days) there wasn’t a losing day.  And this week, each of the 3 types of trades did not have a losing day.  So if you only took 10 pip win trades, you would have been profitable every day (and the same was true for the other 2 types of trades).

So this is why I am excited about this new indicator.  I have been interested in bull spreads for a long time, because I just hate risking 80.00 to win 20.00 on Binary Options.  If the market spikes on you just once in 5 trades, you end up trading all day for nothing.  I have done OK with the trend arrows and V5, but I want to trade with less risk involved.


Thanks,

Nick ******

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Hi Ryan,


I did my study on all 8 currency pairs that have Nadex Bull Spreads, using the 1M charts.  I did not actually make any trades (demo or real), but tracked all of the results on paper.

I will send you the screenshots here shortly. (which are posted above)

Thanks for taking the time to read my e-mail. Hopefully I was able to help you understand how I was testing.  The rules I kind of “made up” from rules that you had used in other strategies.

It all looks good on paper….but will it work in actual trading?  That’s what I intend on finding out next week.  

Thanks again, and I’ll talk to you tomorrow.

Nick
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(THE FOLLOWING WAS 4 HOURS WORTH OF TRADING)
Ryan,
I need to go to bed since I have to get up at 2AM, but I just needed to send you one more email on how the indicator did tonight.

1) EU

Signal @ 18:43  -20 pips at the 89 minute mark

-20.00 x 2
-50.00 on Binary

Total Loss = 90.00

Signal @ 22:22

10 pips at the 18 minute mark
20 pips at the 37 minute mark
ATM BO taken for 11pm Expire – Won

Total Profit = 10.00 + 20.00 + 50.00 = 80.00

2) GU

Signal @ 22:20

10 pips at the 20 minute mark
20 pips at the 20 minute mark
ATM BO taken for 11:00 exp – Won

Total Profit = 80.00

3) AU

Signal @ 20:45

10 pips at the 45 minute mark
20 pips at the 52 minute mark
BO ATM taken for 22:00 Exp – Won

Total Profit = 80.00

4) GJ

Signal @ 21:40

10 pips at the 5 minute mark
20 pips at the 7 minute mark
BO ATM taken for 22:00 Exp – Won

Total Profit = 80.00

Signal @ 22:20

10 pips at the 18 minute mark
20 pips at the 20 minute mark
BO ATM taken at the 23:00 Exp – Won

Total Profit = 80.00

5) USDCAD

Signal @ 22:19

-20 pips at the 108 minute mark
-20 pips at the 108 minute mark
BO ATM 23:00 Exp = Loss

Total Loss = 90.00

6) USDCHF

Signal @ 18:50

2 pip loss at the 120M mark
2 pip loss at the 120M mark
BO ATM 20:00 Exp = Loss

Total Loss = 54.00

Signal @ 22:30

10 pips at the 40 minute mark
+ 8 pips at the 120 minute mark (did not get 20 pips but still generated profit)
BO ATM 23:00 Exp = Won

Total Profit = 68.00

7) EJ

Signal @ 22:45

10 pips at the 33 minute mark
20 pips at the 62 minute mark
BO ATM 00:00 exp = WIN

Total profit = 80.00

8) UJ

Signal @ 20:55

10 pips at 47m mark
+ 10 pips profit at the 120M Mark (a profitable loss)
BO ATM 23:00 exp = Win

Total Profit = 70.00

TOTAL PROFIT FROM 20:00 TO 00:00 = $384.00

8 SIGNALS GENERATED PROFITS
3 SIGNALS GENERATED LOSSES

I was just looking at the charts before I was going to bed and had to share the results.

Thanks,

Nick

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Bull Spread Testing April 20-24
10P – W 10P – L 10P-L Profit 20P – W 20P – L 10P-L Profit Binary W Binary L Binary Profit Totals
AU 14 0 0 $140.00 11 3 -5 $215.00 11 3 $400.00 $755.00
EJ 21 0 0 $210.00 17 4 -21 $319.00 16 5 $550.00 $1,079.00
EU 15 1 -2 $148.00 14 2 -1 $279.00 13 3 $500.00 $927.00
GU 14 0 0 $140.00 9 5 -10 $170.00 12 2 $500.00 $810.00
GJ 13 0 0 $130.00 10 3 -37 $163.00 11 2 $450.00 $743.00
UCAD 12 1 -15 $105.00 9 4 -33 $147.00 10 3 $350.00 $602.00
UCHF 17 1 -14 $156.00 13 5 -5 $255.00 16 2 $700.00 $1,111.00
UJ 11 4 -19 $91.00 8 7 4 $164.00 15 0 $750.00 $1,005.00
TOTALS 117 7 -50 $1,120.00 91 33 -108 $1,712.00 104 20 $4,200.00 $7,032.00
94.35% 73.39% 83.87%
Column B (10P – W) tells the number of times a 10 pip win was achieved
Column C (10P – L) tells the number of times a 10 pip win was NOT achieved
Column D (+/- Pips) – tells how many pips were made when a trade is lost. Sometimes this is a positive number because you still might profit some in a loss
Column E = Shows profits from all trades that are made trying to make 10 pips
Column F (20P – W) tells the number of times a 20 pip win was achieved
Column G (20P – L) tells the number of times a 20 pip win was NOT achieved
Column H (+/- Pips) – tells how many pips were made when a trade is lost. Sometimes this is a positive number because you still might profit some in a loss
Column E = Shows profits from all trades that are made trying to make 20 pips
Column J – Number of trades won placing a 1 HR binary option trade
Column K – Number of trades lost placing a 1 HR bianry option trade
Column L = Total profits from BO trades
The cell highlighted in RED tells the total profit for the week for that currency
Bull Spread Testing AU Week of May 4-8
10P – W 10P – L 10P-L Profit 20P – W 20P – L 10P-L Profit Binary W Binary L Binary Profit
M 0 2 -10 $10.00 0 2 -10 $10.00 1 1 $0.00
T 4 0 0 $40.00 2 3 -14 $26.00 3 2 $50.00
W 5 0 0 $50.00 3 2 -3 $57.00 4 1 $150.00
R 3 0 0 $30.00 3 0 0 $60.00 3 0 $150.00
F 1 1 0 $10.00 0 2 -20 $20.00 0 2 $100.00
TOTALS 13 3 $120.00 8 9 $113.00 11 6 $250.00 $483.00
Bull Spread Testing EJ Week of May 4-8
10P – W 10P – L 10P-L Profit 20P – W 20P – L 10P-L Profit Binary W Binary L Binary Profit
M 3 1 -7 $23.00 2 2 -27 $13.00 2 3 $50.00
T 4 2 -40 $0.00 4 2 -40 $40.00 3 3 $0.00
W 4 2 -36 $4.00 3 3 -46 $14.00 4 2 $100.00
R 7 0 0 $70.00 6 1 -20 $100.00 4 3 $50.00
F 1 0 0 $10.00 1 0 0 $20.00 1 0 $50.00
TOTALS 19 5 $107.00 16 8 $187.00 14 11 $150.00 $444.00
Bull Spread Testing Week of May 4-8
10P – W 10P – L 10P-L Profit 20P – W 20P – L 10P-L Profit Binary W Binary L Binary Profit
M 3 0 0 $30.00 2 1 3 $43.00 2 1 $50.00
T 4 3 -25 $15.00 4 3 -25 $55.00 4 3 $50.00
W 3 1 -20 $10.00 3 1 -20 $40.00 3 1 $100.00
R 6 1 -20 $40.00 5 2 -12 $88.00 3 4 $50.00
F 1 0 0 $10.00 1 0 0 $20.00 1 0 $50.00
TOTALS 17 5 $105.00 15 7 $246.00 13 9 $200.00 $551.00
Bull Spread Testing GU Week of May 4-8
10P – W 10P – L 10P-L Profit 20P – W 20P – L 10P-L Profit Binary W Binary L Binary Profit
M 2 1 -20 $0.00 1 2 -27 $7.00 1 2 $50.00
T 5 3 -60 $10.00 2 6 -107 $67.00 4 4 $0.00
W 5 0 0 $50.00 5 0 0 $100.00 2 3 $50.00
R 4 0 0 $40.00 4 0 0 $80.00 3 1 $100.00
F 1 0 0 $10.00 1 0 0 $20.00 1 0 $50.00
TOTALS 17 4 $90.00 13 8 $126.00 11 10 $50.00 $266.00
Bull Spread Testing GJ Week of May 4-8
10P – W 10P – L 10P-L Profit 20P – W 20P – L 10P-L Profit Binary W Binary L Binary Profit
M 2 1 -20 $0.00 1 2 -10 $10.00 2 1 $50.00
T 7 1 -20 $50.00 6 2 -40 $80.00 2 6 $200.00
W 2 3 -60 $40.00 1 4 -56 $36.00 1 4 $150.00
R 5 0 0 $50.00 5 0 0 $100.00 5 0 $250.00
F 1 0 0 $10.00 0 1 -20 $20.00 1 0 $50.00
TOTALS 17 5 $70.00 13 9 $134.00 11 11 $0.00 $204.00
Bull Spread Testing Week of May 4-8
10P – W 10P – L 10P-L Profit 20P – W 20P – L 10P-L Profit Binary W Binary L Binary Profit
M 4 0 0 $40.00 4 0 0 $80.00 2 2 $0.00
T 5 2 -17 $33.00 4 3 -31 $49.00 5 2 $150.00
W 4 2 -14 $26.00 3 3 -14 $46.00 2 4 $100.00
R 3 3 -36 $6.00 3 3 -36 $24.00 2 4 $100.00
F 0 1 -4 $4.00 0 1 -4 $4.00 0 1 $50.00
TOTALS 16 8 $89.00 14 10 $195.00 11 13 $100.00 $184.00
Bull Spread Testing Week of May 4-8
10P – W 10P – L 10P-L Profit 20P – W 20P – L 10P-L Profit Binary W Binary L Binary Profit
M 3 0 0 $30.00 1 2 -17 $3.00 3 0 $150.00
T 6 0 0 $60.00 4 2 -40 $40.00 4 2 $100.00
W 3 3 -60 $30.00 3 3 -60 $0.00 3 4 $50.00
R 6 1 2 $62.00 6 1 2 $122.00 5 2 $150.00
F 1 2 -40 $30.00 1 2 -40 $20.00 1 2 $50.00
TOTALS 19 6 $92.00 15 10 $145.00 16 10 $300.00 $537.00
Bull Spread Testing Week of May 4-8
10P – W 10P – L 10P-L Profit 20P – W 20P – L 10P-L Profit Binary W Binary L Binary Profit
M 0 2 -10 $10.00 0 2 -10 $10.00 1 1 $0.00
T 2 3 -1 $19.00 2 3 -1 $39.00 3 1 $100.00
W 3 0 0 $30.00 2 1 6 $46.00 3 0 $150.00
R 4 0 0 $40.00 2 2 12 $52.00 4 0 $200.00
F 1 0 0 $10.00 0 1 7 $7.00 1 0 $50.00
TOTALS 10 5 $89.00 6 9 $134.00 12 2 $500.00 $723.00
G
Bull Spread Testing GRAND TOTALS WEEK OF MAY 4-8
10P – W 10P – L 10P-L Profit 20P – W 20P – L 10P-L Profit Binary W Binary L Binary Profit Totals
M 17 7 -67 $103.00 11 13 -98 $122.00 14 11 $150.00 $375.00
T 37 14 -163 $207.00 28 24 -298 $262.00 28 23 $250.00 $719.00
W 29 11 -190 $100.00 23 17 -193 $267.00 22 19 $150.00 $517.00
R 38 5 -54 $326.00 34 9 -54 $626.00 29 14 $750.00 $1,702.00
F 7 4 -44 $26.00 4 7 -77 $3.00 6 5 $50.00 $79.00
TOTALS 128 41 -518 $762.00 100 70 -720 $1,280.00 99 72 $1,350.00 $3,392.00
Win Rate 75.74% 58.82% 57.89%
$ Won By Currency
AU $483.00
EJ $444.00
EU $551.00
GU $266.00
GJ $204.00
UCAD $184.00
UCHF $537.00
UJ $723.00
If this is something you are interested in using for your own trading, just CLICK HERE!
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