As you are well aware, we had a losing day today. Remember all that talk about probabilities? Here is why I took a long position.
The wall street 30 had not closed below 200 points since may 13, 2014. There have been 65 trading days since then. The day was a bear day but to drop below 200 points was beyond me. The statistical probability of it closing below 200 points today was really low so I stand by my trade, win or lose. I say this because in the long run probabilities work.
Now on a brighter note… Yesterday, many of you made a lot of money on that bull spread. One person raked in $700 yesterday and that is fantastic! Congrats! I have been getting a lot of feedback about wanting more bull spread trades so tomorrow, I will send one out. I may do it tonight at 6pm but highly doubt it. It will most likely be tomorrow morning around 8am eastern.
There is a data table I posted in the facebook group “Nadex Trading Ideas” and it will show you a lot of statistical information about daily prices over the past few years such as the range, open to close, open to high, open to low, etc…
Bull Spreads, if you can get close to the floor or ceiling, work great. I will be sending out signals of probable TP targets. Whether you take them is up to you but hear this. The TP targets work. They may keep you from making a killing one day but they will also keep the money stream steady and smooth.
I will show you how the signals will look and explain how to read and trade them…
Example signal (This way I can fit everything in 140 characters…
Buy WS30 16800-17200 for 16810. Sell WS30 16400–16800 for 16790. TP=15 each side. RR +30/-20
How to read it…
WS30 stands for Wall Street 30 (I am trying to save space)
If I say buy for 16810 and currently price is at 16830, just place a working order for 16810 and go to bed.
If price is currently 16805, then great because you can get a better price.
TP=15 means that you will want to take profits at +$15 on each side. This means that as the price swings occur throughout the day, if price swings up 15 points, you will take profits on your buy position. If price swings down 15 points, you will take profits on your sell position. Leave the other side open if it has not taken profit yet.
RR+30/-20. This is where I tell you what the risk/reward is on the trade. This means that max win would be $30 for both contracts and the max loss will be -$20 for both contracts. If you get in the trade and one side takes profit and the other side expires worthless, then your P/L for the day (on the trade I just mentioned) would be +5 because you won one for +$15 and lost one for -$10. that equals +$5.
As long as one side gets hit at some point before expiration, you will have made money on this trade.
This is called a Non-directional trade. It does not matter which way the market goes. As long as it moves, you will have a successful trading day.
If the market does not move, you will have an unsuccessful trading day. If this is something you are interested in, please send me a message on facebook and I will start sending these out.
Have a great day and Happy Trading!