Weekly Outlook for EUR/USD

[Posted on Apr 10, 2010 @ 13:44]

from time to time, I may write out what i think the next week will bring. I called the week correctly last week. Actually Steve and I conspired together. So here is my call for the coming week…
First, let us look at the big picture. A weekly chart.
As I look at this, I see a few things:
An almost double bottom on the last 3 candles
we have many dolis over the past few weeks which signify indecision.
A hanging man that is pushing on the downward trendline
A stochastic that wants to cross to the upside.
This looks like the price wants to reverse and move in an upward direction. The trend is down so I would not trade this just yet.
Lets look at a daily chart:
Ok on this chart, all i see is:
a daily very bullish candle on friday.
a stochastic cross to the upside
a higher low.
The daily chart is still in a downward trend.
Price has shot strait up to the 21 day ema and has not crossed the trendline so this suggests that the shoot up was just a correction and price will push back down on monday.
Lets go even deeper into this chart:
OK now we are getting a picture painted for us. I can see there is a shift in thinking among traders.
The price is challenging the trendline in a very bullish momentum move.
The ema’s are beginning to turn to the upside.
Looks like price is shooting all the way towards resistence while creating a double bottom. This week, price did not take out support.
Based on what I see here…
Price looks as if it wants to go back towards 1.37 this week. Although it is in a downtrend, it may retrace somewhat this week. I am watching what happens sunday night in asian sessions. Unless price reverses right about now to drop like a brick and take out support, I am bullish on this for now. Although price seems to be too overbought on the shorter time frames to take an entry long, I will wait for a pullback to go long. If price breaks 1.36 without a pullback, this would signal to me a change in the long term trend.
Long term: Above 1.36 Long, Below 1.3270 Short. Anywhere in between I am looking for a short term pullback for a long position. Lets see if I am right this week.
Ok it is sunday night. lOOK WHAT JUST HAPPENED!!!

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